Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Daf Yomi - Megillah 11 - Calculations

by Rafi G. life in israel

We recently learned in daf yomi the calculations, and miscalculations, of the 70 years of exile after the destruction of the first Beis Hamikdash and prior to the rebuilding of the second Beis Hamikdash.

One would think that 70 years is not too difficult to keep track of, especially when you are living within the thick of it. However, we see Ahashverosh miscounted the 70 years. So did other people. Nobody knew from when to begin the count of 70, therefore everybody's count was skewed and nobody had the correct target date. It was only after the rebuilding of the Beis Hamikdash began that we could look back and say we know when the count of 70 years of exile began.

The same is true in the upcoming parsha regarding the creation of the golden calf. The Jews knew Moshe was going to be on Mt. Sinai for 40 days. How hard is it to count 40 days? Yet they miscounted and that led them to making the mistake of creating the golden calf.

We have many dates and calculations throughout tanach and Jewish history. Great Rabbis have calculated with varying conclusions the dates of the coming of Moshiah, the end of the world, the redemption, etc. These dates come and go. We then question how the great Rabbis could be wrong and lose faith (sometimes) or simply become cynical when hearing such things.

We have to realize that we never know where to begin the count, and therefore our counts and calculations are always wrong. It is only in hindsight we can look back and say where the count began.

The gemara says the world will only last 6000 years. That is pretty good reason to start getting nervous. We are now in the year 5767 (of the Jewish calendar). That only leaves 233 years left to go before armageddon!

But considering the fact that pretty much every count in the Torah and Jewish history was found to be miscalculated, we have to consider that we have no idea when the count of 6000 years begins. Did the 6000 years begin from the first day of creation? Maybe from Avraham recognizing monotheism? Maybe from matan Torah? Maybe from the jewish nation entering Eretz Yisroel? Or maybe from multitudes of other placemarks in jewish history. We have no idea when the count begins, and will only know after it actually happens.

I think it was the Rambam who said not to bother calculating the coming of the mashiah, as doing so only causes people to lose faith when the predicted event does not happen. Instead of worrying about specific dates and calculations that will almost definitely be wrong anyways, we should heed the advice of the great masters and be "mefashfesh b'maasav" - look at our ways and correct our actions and try to prepare in that way for the days of Mashiah.

Kol tuv,



ben said...

Rafi, nice piece, but Gemara states clearly that 6000 yrs. began from day 1. 2000 yrs. of desolation, 2000 yrs. Torah from when Avraham made geirim, and 2000 yrs. Messianic Era.

ben said...

there are even allusions to this as Gemara states Rav is a Tanna and he argues. palig, the word for arguing, also means split, and this alludes to the idea that the 2000 years of Torah ended in the era of Rav (Heard from Reb Yosef Kaminetzky shlita grandson of Reb Yaakov zt"l). Also, it is said he was called peleg because beyamav nifligah haaretz, and nifligah, besides the literal meaning of dispersed, can mean split. The dor haflagah was around the year 2000. That's when desolation ended and Torah began (my own).

Rafi G said...

1. how does that fit with the fact that Avraham was in the year 1948?
2. Does the gemara say it was year starting in year 1 or when it says 2000 years of desolation you are assuming it is starting the count from day 1. I do not remember the exact wording, but if it does not say it started from day 1, nothing changes... and if it does say it, then that solves the question regardig the 6000 years, but not about other numbers where no starting point is given.

ben said...

Here's the quote from Avodah Zara Daf 9

תנא דבי אליהו ששת אלפים שנה הוי העולם שני אלפים תוהו שני אלפים תורה שני אלפים ימות המשיח בעונותינו שרבו יצאו מהן מה שיצאו מהן שני אלפים תורה מאימת אי נימא ממתן תורה עד השתא ליכא כולי האי דכי מעיינת בהו תרי אלפי פרטי דהאי אלפא הוא דהואי אלא מואת הנפש אשר עשו בחרן וגמירי דאברהם בההיא שעתא בר חמשין ותרתי הוה כמה בצרן מדתני תנא ארבע מאה וארבעים ותמניא שנין הויין כי מעיינת ביה מהנפש אשר עשו בחרן עד מתן תורה ארבע מאה וארבעים ותמניא שנין הויין

ben said...

Avrham was born in 1948 and was 52 when he made geirim. Ibn Ezra posits that Avraham was from the builders of the tower, so Dor haflagah was "around" 2000.

Avromi said...

The Ramban in Breishis 2:3 seems to say pretty clearly that the two thousand years of tohu started in the beginning of Creation.

Rafi G said...

ok. but on that note, if Avraham recognized hashem and changed his ways at the age of 3 (1951), how woul dhe have been part of the rebellion against God in the dor haflaga at the age of 52 (year 2000)?
What is the Ibn Ezra's explanation on that? According to this Avraham was not all that he was made out to be (at least until much later)

ben said...

in the words of Reb Chaim Kanievsky, shlita, the Ibn Ezra consistently disagrees with Chazal, in his pursuit of pshat.